An analysis by Mitch Baruchowitz, managing partner at investment firm Merida Capital, argues Wall Street analysts drastically underestimate cannabis's total addressable market (TAM). He predicts the industry will have a $1T global economic impact by 2027.
Baruchowitz acknowledges this would be pretty remarkable for such a new industry, but here's his case:
"We can start by looking at the innumerable industrial applications of the hemp plant. We can also take a swing at predicting hemp-based CBD sales as nutraceutical, or medical formulations over the next 10 years. We can reference the amount of total predicted cannabis sales for adult-use in 2027. We can extrapolate ancillary spending from current levels and get a sense of what that will look like in 2027. We can also glance at the current state of medical markets and project what those look like in 2027. We can then take a reasonable guess at what type of ancillary activity would have to occur to support the plants’ cultivation, manufacturing, productization and shipping...
"The conclusion we reached is that even the most intelligent and professional analysts are likely underestimating the full impact of cannabis/CBD over time by orders of magnitude and are failing to account accurately for how fast the global industry is evolving."
Not to be outdone, Bengal Capital calls the war on drugs a "lost $5.3T U.S. sovereign wealth fund."