A study from the Pew Charitable Trusts found it remains very difficult to predict cannabis tax revenue. The biggest obstacle is lack of data: Analysts have at best a few years of receipts on which to base their forecasts.

  • Josh Lehner, an Oregon state economist said it’s also difficult to forecast consumption. “Sixty percent of Oregonians say they’ve had a drink in the last month. Twenty percent say they’ve used marijuana. Does marijuana go all the way up there, where the majority of Oregonians say they’ve used it in the past month? That’s the big-picture uncertainty.”
  • Major rule changes, such as allowances for interstate trade, could also play havoc with models in the future.
  • In the more mature markets, tax revenue has started to plateau though in Colorado and Washington grew 18% and 17% respectively between 2017 and 2018.