The future is notoriously difficult to predict.
A few souls responded to our call for industry predictions for 2022. But they were (mostly) self-serving and dull, so they’re not getting printed. Instead here are some predictions from me.
Hold me to them next year.
- The industry grows closer to the Republican Party. As the alliance deepens, PotCos de-emphasize the need for equity provisions in any major federal reforms, whether they pass Congress or not. More Republicans in Congress rally to Rep. Nancy Mace’s side in a bid to co-opt the legalization issue from Democrats.
- California’s industry continues to struggle. In the absence of substantial reforms, at least a dozen companies withhold their state tax payments. By the end of the year, a credible effort is underway to restructure the state’s industry via 2024 ballot initiative. California brands become takeover targets for MSOs entering the state.
- Crypto currency and related technologies do not become a major force in the cannabiz. For at least another year.
- Instagram clarifies its policy for banning and shadowbanning 420-related accounts. Neither Facebook nor Google begins to allow paid cannabis advertising.
- Equity business success stories remain rare.
- The FDA greenlights CBD to be a used as a dietary supplement. This will pave the way for the cannabinoid to be added to mainstream brands.
- As I’ve predicted before, calls for potency caps gain momentum in state governments, and perhaps even federally. They’ll prove the be the most effective form of opposition the industry has encountered in the last decade.
- Pennsylvania and Ohio legalize REC. With almost every major population center bounded by Maine, Ohio and Virginia legal, talk about interstate trade intensifies.
- More major consumer facing companies follow Amazon and call for legalization.
- New Jersey’s REC market opens in some form. New York’s does not.